May 2021 papers

Check out two new papers

In Gloege et al. 2021, in Global Biogeochemical Cycles, we use large ensembles of climate models as a testbed to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of a machine learning approach to extrapolation of ocean pCO2 to global coverage. This type of approach is critical to current efforts to quantify and understand the modern ocean carbon sink. We find very good representation for the long-term mean and seasonality, but more uncertainty in the representation of decadal variability.

In Ridge and McKinley, 2021, in Biogeosciences, we study the future response of the ocean carbon sink to a range of emission scenarios. Under all scenarios, the sink will become less efficient. If we do not mitigate, efficiency decline through 2080 will be dominated by reduced carbonate buffering capacity. If we do mitigate emissions sufficient to limit warming to no more than 1.5C, efficiency decline will occur due to anthropogenic carbon currently stuck near the surface ocean being reemitted to the atmosphere.